Pilotless planes could save airlines billions. But would anyone fly?
無人駕駛的飛機(jī)或許可為航空公司節(jié)省十億以上的美金，問題是你敢坐嗎？
Taking pilots out of the cockpit could save airlines billions. But would anyone buy a ticket?
取消駕駛艙中的飛行員們能讓航空公司節(jié)省數(shù)十億美元。但是不是有人會買票呢？
The aviation industry could save $35 billion a year by moving to pilotless planes, according to a new report from UBS. Just one problem: The same report warns that only 17% of travelers are willing to fly without a pilot.
根據(jù)UBS的最新報告，航空業(yè)如果采用無人駕駛飛機(jī)能夠節(jié)省350億美元的開支。但是，該報告還警告說，只有17%的旅行者愿意乘坐無人駕駛飛機(jī)。
UBS said that the technology required to operate remote-controlled planes could appear by 2025. Further advances beyond 2030 might result in automated business jets and helicopters, and finally commercial aircraft without pilots.
UBS說遙控飛行的技術(shù)可能在2025年出現(xiàn)。到2030年可能會在無人商業(yè)飛機(jī)和直升機(jī)上采用，最后則是在商務(wù)飛機(jī)上實現(xiàn)無人駕駛。
"The technologies in development today will enable the aircraft to assist and back up the pilot in all the flight phases, removing the pilot from manual control and systems operations in all types of situations," the report said.
報告指出：“今天的科技發(fā)展已經(jīng)能夠讓飛機(jī)協(xié)助飛行員進(jìn)行各方面的操作，使飛行員能夠在各種情況下脫離手動操作而改用系統(tǒng)操作。
Commercial flights already land with the assistance of on-board computers, and pilots manually fly the aircraft for only a few minutes on average.
商務(wù)飛機(jī)已經(jīng)在由機(jī)載電腦協(xié)助飛行，且飛行員真正手動操作的時間平均不過只有幾分鐘。
However, contrary to popular belief, airliners do not fly themselves, even when they're on autopilot. Pilots are continually monitoring and adjusting aircraft navigation and systems, communicating with air traffic control and preparing for the next phase of the flight.
然而，與這樣的人之相反的是，大家都認(rèn)為飛機(jī)不會自己飛行，即使是在自動駕駛模式下。飛行員不停地監(jiān)視和調(diào)整飛行方向和系統(tǒng)，和調(diào)度中心溝通并準(zhǔn)備下一步行動。
UBS analysts said the transition to pilotless planes is likely to happen over many years. Cargo planes would likely be first to incorporate the new technology, with commercial flights being the last to go pilotless. The number of pilots needed for each flight could be reduced along the way.
UBS分析人士說向無人駕駛飛機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)變應(yīng)該還需要數(shù)年。貨運飛機(jī)應(yīng)該第一個采用最新技術(shù)，而商務(wù)飛機(jī)要到最后才會采用無人駕駛飛機(jī)。每架飛經(jīng)所需的飛行員數(shù)量也會隨之逐漸減少。
The shift has the potential to save the aviation industry huge amounts of money. Airlines typically employ 10 pilots per aircraft, and reducing their number would result in less spending on training, salaries and other staffing costs.
此變動能夠為航空業(yè)節(jié)省一大筆錢。通常每架飛機(jī)會配備10名飛行員，減少他們的數(shù)量也就意味著在培訓(xùn)、人員工資和其他人員費用上節(jié)省開支。
It could also help alleviate an expected pilot shortage over the coming decades.
它同時也會緩和未來十年飛行員稀缺的矛盾。
An annual forecast released by Boeing last month said passenger and cargo airlines around the world are expected to buy 41,000 new airliners between 2017 and 2036. That means they will need to find and train 637,000 new pilots to fly them.
上個月波音公司發(fā)布的年度預(yù)測指出，從2017年至2036年，全世界所需的商務(wù)和貨運飛機(jī)一共是41000架新飛機(jī)。這就是說為了找到人去駕駛它們，他們要找到并培訓(xùn)637000名新飛行員。
Airlines in the Middle East and China, where air traffic is growing fast, are offering huge paychecks to attract more pilots and salaries in the U.S. are rising too.
位于中東和中國的航空公司，因那里的航空業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，正開出高額支票吸引飛行員過去，同時美國國內(nèi)的飛行員工資也在上漲。
A move to pilotless planes would boost industry profitability, UBS said.
UBS說，采用無人駕駛飛機(jī)會會使行業(yè)的利潤大增。
Alternatively, if the cost savings were entirely passed to consumers, tickets could cost much less (11% cheaper in the U.S.). That would be about $40 a ticket, according to the $369 round trip average in the first half of 2016, which included $23 in fees.
也可以說，如果節(jié)省下的錢用在客戶身上，機(jī)票價格會大幅下降（在美國會降低11%）。那就是一張省40美元，計算的依據(jù)是2016年上半年平均往返票價為369美元，這包括了23美元的服務(wù)費。
Still, there is likely to be major resistance to taking pilots out of the cockpit.
但是，把飛行員從駕駛艙中請走，還是阻力重重。
A survey of 8,000 people commissioned by UBS found that 54% of respondents were unlikely to take a pilotless flight. Just 17% of respondents, who were from the U.S., U.K., France, Germany and Australia, said they would buy the ticket.
一項由UBS組織的8千人參加的調(diào)查顯示，54%的受訪者不愿意乘坐無人駕駛飛機(jī)。只有17%的受訪者表示愿意乘坐。這些人來自美國，英國，法國，德國和澳大利亞。
Major regulatory changes would also be required and any reduction in cockpit staffing would face huge opposition from pilots unions.
還會有主要的監(jiān)管上的變化，同時減少飛行員數(shù)量將面臨飛行員工會的強(qiáng)烈反對。
Air traffic laws in most of the world require "four-eye-rule" in the cockpit. Two pilots should be present at all times, and if one of them needs to take a break, another member of the crew has to take his or her spot.
全球大部分國家的航空交通法要求駕駛艙內(nèi)執(zhí)行“四只眼法則”。艙內(nèi)全時要有兩名飛行員，如有一個人需要休息，另一個人就要承擔(dān)起責(zé)任。
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